Who Is Responsible for the Disappearance of Suzanne Lyall?
The disappearance of nineteen-year-old Suzanne Lyall from either the UAlbany campus or the Crossgates Mall parking lot one evening in 1998 is one of those mysteries that gets under your skin. First, because “Suzy” was such a sensible young woman who did not appear at first sight to have had any high probability of disappearing based on any lifestyle risks. Second, because her disappearance seems as though it must have happened in virtually the blink of an eye, with few or no clues left behind. And lastly, because it’s now been a quarter of a century with no answers or resolution to this mystery. Rather, we are actually seeing a proliferation of theories as the podcast world and YouTube and various websites speculate, speculate, speculate.
I’m not going to go over the basic facts of this disappearance. I would simply refer you to the Wikipedia entry on the disappearance of Suzanne Lyall for that.
I’m just going to go through a list of the theories most frequently espoused to explain this disappearance and a few that are rarely (if ever) discussed and see how tenable these various scenarios seem.
SUZANNE WAS A VICTIM OF SERIAL KILLER ISRAEL KEYES. The ghost of Israel Keyes has turned into a big fat cash cow for countless people. He is now the modern bogeyman, responsible for any unsolved murder or disappearance that occurred in America when he was a mature adult. I get it. He had no set “type” of victim. This cipher victimology drove the FBI and others in law enforcement nuts. Because this creature could target literally anyone, was completely peripatetic, and even today we can’t pin down where he was at many times in his life.
If you are looking for the “best case” made for the idea that Keyes is responsible for the disappearance of Suzanne, then look no further than the True Crime Bullshit episodes devoted to this. That’s about as good as it gets for this theory. But I don’t buy it. I believe the FBI got it right when they said the murders began in 2001 after Keyes separated from the army. People will tell you that Keyes killed almost anyone who fit in that timeline of years when he was known to be active. They say his victims must surely total in the dozens if not more. It’s not likely.
I totally believe Israel Keyes killed exactly eleven people. I believe that because this serial killer, who should have been torn apart by wild dogs, painted those eleven skulls in his own blood before killing himself. This document found under his cell bed was a psychopathic brag more than a confession. It was important to the psychopath to get his self-mythology correct, to celebrate himself at the end. He probably felt he was taking those victims with him to some other side, the way Dahmer fantasized about possessing his victims even after death. So we have four known victims of Keyes and I think that leaves seven more unsolved murders. At least two of those other victims were an (as yet unidentified) couple killed in a double murder. The odds are astronomically against one of those other five victims being Suzanne Lyall.
The evidence offered up to make the case for Suzanne as a Keyes victim often includes his stating during his interrogation in 2012 that he was “two different people” for fourteen years, which would take it back to the same year Suzanne disappeared. But that is just a matter of a few months’ difference from his first violent crime, the rape of the river tuber in Maupin, Oregon. Keyes could easily have been talking about that rape or his decision in the year following that to finish off his future victims rather than releasing them the next time he had the opportunity. Also, Keyes said he preferred slender women as victims (although there is one known victim who does not really fit that typology).
And Keyes was usually a meticulous planner, a highly organized serial killer. I know many people who examine this case give a lot of credence to the Albany Marshall’s parking lot incident where a woman felt threatened when accosted by a man who resembled Israel Keyes. This can not even be dated to a given year, but might have occurred in 1998. That would seem like a (possibly) random opportunity he was sizing up, but he ultimately did not take that opportunity, if it even was him. And we don’t even know if that truly was a stalking type encounter. Keyes existed in the world and had social interaction like everyone else. Just because someone remembers him ogling her in a parking lot does not mean he was actively stalking her in that moment. If you look at his known murders, he seemed to prefer to find his victims in isolation. He probably did kidnap more than one person from hiking trails and trail heads. That seems to be evident from the interviews. If so, that narrows down the remaining victims of Keyes even further. Suzanne’s disappearance just does not fit this profile.
Lastly, Suzanne did say she thought she had a stalker, but she also said she was not worried at all about that individual. That points to Suzanne probably knowing who was stalking her and not believing that person was a real threat. She might have been very wrong about the latter part. (Or this might have been someone acting as a proxy for her controlling boyfriend.) I would hope the FBI did due diligence and went through the names of customer transactions at the Babbage’s where Suzanne worked. But if Israel Keyes was hanging out there and did make a purchase, you just know it would have been cash. However, an examination of regular customers might have revealed someone else who was also on a list of persons of interest. It would almost certainly have been too long after the fact for Suzanne’s fellow employees to actually remember Keyes visiting the store (if he ever did) since he wasn’t captured and revealed to be a serial killer for another fourteen years. Whether he ever encountered Suzanne on any BBS (as is sometimes speculated) would require a hard archival root-down. I’m not sure if any of that electronic archeology still exists, and then everyone was masked with online names anyway and that was the era of dial-up.
SUZANNE COMMITTED SUICIDE. This theory is almost never discussed. Evidence that I would consider as pointing this direction would be that her grades had been slipping, she had been stressing quite a bit about an exam that she said she absolutely needed to do very well on, and numerous people have said they felt something was “off” with Suzanne’s affect around the time of her disappearance. Most disturbing among these accounts is that of her father, who said he had a premonition of doom when dropping her off for the last time.
Sometimes the ones who love us most can feel these things in ways that cannot be fully articulated. But, of course, all that darkness felt in Suzanne could also have been due to things that were going on in her troubled relationship with her boyfriend. Or something else. It would look pretty much the same way to others. Also, suicides are usually (if not always) found. And with someone as expressive as Suzanne was, I find it hard to believe she would not have written a note or sent an email, left some form of goodbye.
Countless ambitious college students have killed themselves at times when they felt they were failing at their mission, short term failures that would have seemed like nothing after a few years had passed and their ships had righted themselves. But sometimes they don’t get that opportunity due to a blinkered view that everything is over and there is no way forward. This might explain Suzanne using the ATM the next day and entering the correct pin in a part of town she would not normally visit. Maybe she was still hesitating or procuring the funds to purchase something needed to end her life or to give her the money for transportation elsewhere.
I don’t believe Suzanne committed suicide. I believe she would have been found and I believe she would have left a message. But I think it’s a possibility that still must be considered.
SUZANNE HAD SECRETLY ENTERED INTO A HIGH RISK LIFESTYLE WHICH CAUSED HER DEATH. Suzanne Lyall is known as the good girl, good daughter, good friend and girlfriend, good student, good worker. Is it inconceivable that she was living somewhat of a double life? Could she have fallen prey to an addiction and then begun engaging in sordid things like prostitution? Well, let’s remember that the night of her disappearance is the first time Suzanne did not return to her dorm room. Ever. And she worked two jobs in addition to her grueling college studies and was not known for calling off ever. So for the people saying she was selling it on the side and was a victim of the Gilgo Beach killer, yadda yadda, there seems to be zero evidence of any of this. Zero evidence that Suzanne was going to the wrong side of the town and hitting up ATMs for drug money. Next.
SUZANNE DEVELOPED AMNESIA AND IS ALIVE, OUT THERE SOMEWHERE BUT DOES NOT REMEMBER HER IDENTITY. Wouldn’t that be wonderful. She hit her head getting off the bus at the Collins Circle stop and headed straight to Alaska. People always fall back on this, the laziest and most unlikely theory ever. It does happen…about as often as a meteor strikes a city in a newsworthy way. And usually the amnesia resolves in time. People pretending to have amnesia and leaving their lives are much more common occurrences. But neither of these theories seems to deserve much attention here or elsewhere.
SUZANNE WAS A VICTIM OF SERIAL RAPIST JOHN REGAN. He hasn’t actually killed any of his victims as far as we know. I realize authorities believe he had a kill kit in his vehicle when he was finally apprehended. The inclusion of a noose, tarp and shovel in that kit were certainly disturbing to the maximum degree. I don’t doubt this is a man capable of kidnapping any woman that fits into his sick fantasies but it appears that there is a visible timeline of escalation of the violence of his crimes which doesn’t fit with the timeline of Suzanne’s disappearance. I mean anything is possible when you are lacking the facts to say otherwise. No idea if anyone checked for an alibi but doubt it would have happened at the time since he was on nobody’s radar. This is a theory that has emerged relatively recently. One could basically choose any rapist in the Albany area (or elsewhere) and say that person could theoretically have done it. Which leads to…
SUZANNE WAS ABDUCTED BY A RANDOM CREEP IN A CRIME OF OPPORTUNITY.
This one is hard to disprove because the pool of possibilities is as big as the sea of creeps in this world. And that is a very large sea. But the reason why this scenario might be a little less likely is because the two places generally agreed upon where Suzanne’s abduction had to have taken place are the parking lot behind the Crossgates Mall or the Collins Circle bus stop. And both of these places had a number of people, one of them probably a full crowd. Witnesses interviewed at the time saw nothing out of the ordinary happening at either of those locations. There are two witnesses (bus driver and fellow student) who are pretty sure Suzy did make it onto that bus. So that leaves only one place for her to disappear, somewhere around the Collins Circle bus stop so close to her dorm and so full of people even at 9:30 to 10 p.m. that night. This leads us on to what I believe is the most likely explanation for the disappearance of Suzanne Lyall.
SUZANNE’S BOYFRIEND RICHARD CONDON OR A MEMER OF HIS FAMILY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HER DISAPPEARANCE.
It is clear by the things that she has said publicly that Mary Lyall remains suspicious of Suzy’s boyfriend Richard Condon. While she hasn’t said openly that she feels he is directly responsible for her daughter’s disappearance, one can read between the lines of her statements.
And I think she has good reason to have these suspicions. This is the theory that makes the most sense to me for numerous reasons. First, it would explain how Suzy could disappear “in plain sight.” Nobody pays any attention to someone walking over and quietly getting into a vehicle in a crowded campus parking lot. If Suzy had spotted Richard waiting in his car or he had signaled her, she would have simply gone over and gotten in the car. Perhaps she had called him from a payphone in the mall on a break from work or on the store phone and this had been an arranged meeting. Alternatively, she could have gotten into the car with Richard and another male, probably one of their little circle of friends. Perhaps this is the same individual who alibied Richard that night. Perhaps the car belonged to this other individual, who was driving at the time.
We hear again and again that there was trouble in their relationship and that Suzy had tried unsuccessfully to break up with Richard. This could be a dangerous situation for the young woman since all evidence points to the fact that Condon was a controlling young man who often referred to himself as an alpha and seems to have been at the center of a miniature cult of coders and gamers of which Suzy was a part. Remember that his cohorts refused to even speak to police when law enforcement wanted to question them. It is hard not to see Richard’s hand in controlling that situation. This is not the sort of individual who is used to being told no and being dumped.
When I read Richard’s open letter (still up on his website) to the person responsible for Suzy’s disappearance, it read to me like the words of a malignant narcissist. Was that a deep-seated bit of conscience and guilt calling himself a “coward” rather than some bogeyman out there who got away with it? Or was it addressed to a family member who committed a crime in which Richard was now complicit. That too could be a remote possibility. But then it might just be the bravado of a typical sociopath seeking to earn plaudits for his brave calling-out of the monster who stole his beloved fiancee from him. Please note that only Richard has ever stated that Suzy was his fiancee. This came as shocking news to Suzy’s family and friends. Probably because it was simply not true. In death, Suzy had become even more of a possession.
If you want to listen to one of the best podcasts out there, check out Upstate Unsolved on Apple podcasts. Phoebe LaFave’s award-winning first season was dedicated to the disappearance of Suzy Lyall. LaFave did an incredible job of marshaling the resources available to create a contemporary casebook on this troubling crime. And, most importantly, she did it in the most loving way imaginable. I really haven’t heard true crime covered so well and with such a good heart. She clearly took Suzy into her heart and life and the result is this fantastic assemblage of data, emotion and hope for answers. Turn there first if you are interested in intelligent and insightful coverage of this case.
I mention this podcast because if you are interested in this case you really should listen to the fascinating account given of the investigation by former Senior Investigator James D. Horton. That guy is a trip. Sounding like Ray Liotta, he gives you a glimpse into his dealings with the very strange Condon family. And what does he reveal? He encounters a family run by a controlling matriarch who has banished her husband to the basement and insists her six foot three son sleep in her bed whenever Suzy stays over. Horton explains how Mrs. Condon triesd to claim ownership of Suzy, insisting she belonged more to their family than to her birth family. Exceedingly creepy. She engages in catty badinage with the detective and the entire family seems to play cat and mouse games with him and law enforcement in general.
The single most disturbing piece of evidence is discussed in that installment of the podcast. We learn that Richard’s father deliberately misleads police by pretending to see Suzy alive on numerous occasions. The police set up a sort of sting operation to catch him at his game and sure enough they do catch him lying. You have to ask yourself why anyone would go to these inordinate, harmful and just plain evil lengths if not bound up in a criminal plot. It sure appears that he was covering up for either Richard, himself, his wife or some combination thereof.
We also learn that Richard comes into the police station to try to glean what the police have learned but in a way that Investigator Horton considers especially suspicious. He leaves the precinct in short order without having any satisfaction. Soon thereafter, the entire Condon family lawyers up and refuses to ever cooperate again with the ongoing investigation.
People seem to see something exculpatory in Richard exclaiming during one meeting with police that “Suzie and I are the only ones who know that PIN number!” when it is revealed the number was entering correctly in the ATM machine on the first hit the day after Suzy’s disappearance. I think Suzy was either still alive and with Richard that next day (very unlikely) or else Richard or one of his little cult members did that transaction to create a red herring. His outburst was just a histrionic attempt to underscore that this was an outsider who had used the card in the wrong side of town…oh, obviously it’s a random creep perp after money! Because he jumps right over the obvious assumption that it might be Suzy using it. See what he did there? But it’s done amateurishly because the account is not drained. It was a red herring.
I’m just stating my views of probabilities in this case. I’m not saying he did it because I cannot prove that. But I think probability points to either him or a member of his family committing this crime. If you listen to Investigator Horton’s full account of his dealings with that family, it’s beyond just eccentricity. It’s deeply, deeply troubling and to my mind points to culpability. Normal innocent people do not (I repeat: do not) pretend to see a missing person. So unless the father was known to suffer from a mental disorder involving hallucinations, that is the single most disturbing fact out there about the disappearance of Suzanne Lyall.
Let’s keep in mind that the person seen using the ATM according to one witness looked like a large farmer type. If you look at photos of Richard Condon from that period, I would argue that he had the build and look that would fit that description. Put him in suspenders and he’s your stereotypical farmer on any t.v. show.
My best guess is that Richard had been keeping close tabs on Suzy even at her job. My guess is he was peeking into Babbage’s from across the crowded mall during her work shift (or had someone else doing it for him) to see if she was being “overly familiar” with anyone or having any visitors. Possibly he told her that she was under surveillance and that is why Suzy wasn’t worried about even a stranger spying on her. Suzanne’s mother has stated she believes Suzanne was actually seeing someone else without Richard’s knowledge. But with his remote access to her computer, maybe he did know what was going on (if that even was the case).
If Suzanne had been physically abused in the past, she seems to have a psychological profile where she might be very likely to keep that fact hidden from her parents and loved ones. I’m not saying that would have needed to have been the case. Escalation in a controlling relationship can go from no physical violence to murder in no time. It’s the nature of the psychological dynamics.
I just think when you look at the wealth of information out there, the most likely thing to have happened was that Suzanne saw Richard (or Richard and one of his computer cult buddies) in that parking lot off the Collins Circle bus stop and strolled over there and got in that vehicle. And then she went for a ride with him and things just escalated from there. It probably wasn’t anything that was premeditated. It was probably rage. Condon’s video game alibi means absolutely nothing. When the person who alibis you is someone in your little cult who refuses to even speak to police (probably because you told them not to do so) what does that really mean? That person should come forward and admit it if they falsely alibied him. That person should ask for immunity and they should be granted it. Because I bet that person has something gnawing at their conscience. They must know the truth. Or else that person has more complicity than a false alibi. That situation would certainly help Richard sleep better at night and give him less worries about someone turning state’s evidence. Dirty them up to keep them quiet is a common strategy among the truly devious.
I will end this by saying this is all speculation. I am not accusing anyone of anything but merely stating this is how I see this case in terms of probabilities. We live in a world of probabilities. Consider this a work of probabilistic fiction. Sometimes extremely improbable things happen. And I could see the possibility that Suzanne suffered an extremely improbable end. I can’t say. But I think at least four people can say what that end was. Just going by the probabilities.
I think in the future we will see technology advance to where we will be able to use advanced cognitive science to tell when someone is lying, and then murderers are going to find the jig is up with their “blood secrets.” Because vast strides are already being made in that direction. Right now, we have only polygraphs which are only a few rungs above worthless and often do more harm than good. Soon there will be much more.
If only we knew who is going to harm us when we first meet them. I’ll close with a poem on that theme. This was written by Russian poet Semyon Kirsanov and published in 1956. It appeared in the City Lights anthology Red Cats back in the day.
THE NEW HEART
I’m busy!
I am building
a model, of an
entirely
new
heart
a heart
for the future: to feel
and love with. A heart
to understand men with:
and also, to tell me, whom
I should freely
shake by the hand–
and to whom
I should never
extend it.
