This case is one of the most baffling disappearances. This one and Jason Jolkowski’s disappearance are two that really grate on that part of my brain that is most troubled by unexplained disappearances. My thinking on this is pretty much the same as yours. I don’t believe the cameras covered every single exit and that he did slip out and meet with foul play. As you point out, the saloon was located in a bad part of town and Brian would have been vulnerable if intoxicated. I also agree with you that the Smiley Face Killer(s) theory is over-hyped and probably not a real thing at all. As you point out, those smileys are ubiquitous graffiti and were everywhere around the country long before there was any Smiley Face Killer theory.

What is a real thing, though, is an alarmingly high rate of deaths among young men who drink too much and then wander around after leaving bars and end up in rivers or other bodies of water. Probably most of them lose their orientation and balance, often while trying to urinate towards the body of water. There may even be a psychological draw to the lights in the water in that state. But if Brian chose to walk home, as some locals have stated, it would be unlikely he would have headed towards the river.

I remember reading a statement where Clint said that Brian was too much of a hothead and liked to start fights with people. This was right after Brian’s disappearance and it struck me as tone deaf at best or hinting at knowledge of what happened that night he didn’t wish to share, at worst. The Ugly Tuna Saloona is no longer at that location. I remember reading the university actually took over that building and has offices in there now.

I noticed you have a typo where you said “Meredith” when I think you meant “Alexis,” in the paragraph where you said Shaffer intended to marry Meredith (sic).

I suppose suicide is always a grim possibility, but judging by the footage, he really did appear sociably inclined, animated in a happy (not manic) way and to be just living his best life as a young man out on the town.

It was probably a chance encounter with a predator. I think the phone ringing through might have been the real thing. The phone was probably held for some time and then switched on briefly as “an experiment.” Probably the risk was realized as soon as it rang and then it was destroyed or discarded after that. If that is the case, that is the only thin clue to go on, and no guarantee that the phone hadn’t changed hands many times between April 1st and then.