Scary COVID-19 N.Y.C. Math

“New York is reporting at least 304,372 total positive cases of COVID-19 and 18,312 confirmed COVID-19 deaths, with 54,771 patients having recovered and 11,598 currently hospitalized.” 13,168 of the deceased were residents of New York City.

The current population of New York City (2020) is reportedly a little in excess of 8.7 million people.

So if 13,168 is divided by 8.7 million, you get a mortality rate of .00151. If we convert that to a fraction, the odds of a New York City resident dying of coronavirus is 151/100000 or 1/662.

Does that actually mean that one out of every 662 New Yorkers has died from COVID-19? Did I make an error with my math?

Because that would be like a situation where you’re in a very crowded mall and every time you walk past a few dozen stores, you’d see someone drop dead. All over the city. That’s horrifying math.

And what’s worst is that the death toll will continue to climb. So how long will it be before it’s one out of every five hundred New Yorkers? A rise of a few thousand more in the death toll will increase the odds where that denominator is burned through.

I have seen statistics online saying that New York City’s mortality rate was 500 per million, but how are they getting those figures? If the city is under nine million people, that would mean they would have 4,500 deaths. But the numbers being given out on reputable sites are in excess of 13,000. Just staggering.